Consider whether corona will be an infectious disease comparable to plague of 100 million deaths


Consider whether corona will become an infectious disease like plague with 100 million deaths
Corona is currently estimated to kill about 20,000 people and kill about 400 people in China.

I thought the flu would be so dead, but I looked at Corona’s dead graph and thought about it.

Looking at the growth rate of this graph, what do you think about each person?

The credibility of the Chinese press

As we know, China tends to hide things .

For example, 100 people died in an accident? He buried all the scenes and destroyed the evidence.

It’s no wonder that the corona patient has been absent, because he wants to make the accident alive.

Possibility of lack of investigation in China

It is possible that the scope of the investigation is too broad to complete the investigation .

For example, even if 3,000 people have died, such as a deceased person who died in an earthquake, we cannot immediately report the news, and every survey reveals that 3 → 30 → 300 → 3000 people are discovered.

Japan’s population is smaller than China and personal information management is stricter (for example, if you are killed tomorrow you will be found within a week and the culprit will be caught within a few months), but China’s population is large and appropriate for management Considering the existence of Sasamura, it seems difficult to conduct a reliable survey itself, and in some ways it is no different from hiding.

1 to compare with plague infectious disease

If you think of the increase in this graph and the dead, it seems that it is not great compared to the population ratio of China as a whole, but if it is 10 times or 100 times larger because it is data that is concealed or insufficiently investigated. It seems to be dangerous.

It’s obvious to those who know it, but write down the last 100 million infectious disease cases.

When quoted from WIKI’s plague, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%9A%E3%82%B9%E3%83%88

1. The epidemic of the Roman Empire occurred between 165 and 180, killing 25-33% of infected people and killing 3.5-5 million people .

2. Epidemic in the Eastern Roman Empire, Constantinople, 541-542 (or 542-543), killing 40% of total population. Every day 10,000 people die in Constantinople . The empire was hit by plague in the 8th and 14th centuries. The epidemic from the 1340s hit the empire on the last offensive. The epidemic spread to Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, and it is said that 30 to 50 million (or more) , half of the population at that time, died .

It is estimated that in the 3rd and 14th centuries the plague pandemic occurred worldwide, killing some 80 to 100 million people . The plague, which had disappeared from Western Europe since 472, originated in Asia and spread to Europe via the Silk Road, creating a global pandemic. It is estimated that approximately 85 to 30 million people have died , about 85 million people worldwide, or one-third to two-thirds of the European population at the time .

Part 2 Compared with Plague Infectious Disease

If it were the same as the plague epidemic, it would be a catastrophe that would kill more than tens of thousands of people.

However, given that the plague has disappeared (naturally), human immunity to the virus has improved considerably in the last 500 to 1000 years, and it is necessary to transmit and kill evolved humans as before, It is severe if the virus is far more powerful than the old and existing viruses. Even now, almost no one dies of tuberculosis before the Showa era.

That said, with 10,000 deaths every day and about 100 million deaths before, depending on China’s concealment and lack of investigation, it may not be impossible for a similar catastrophe to occur again.



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